While the story lines and gaming odds are still being drawn up for Super Bowl XLIV, another debate is raging over what, if any, economic impact the game will have on the South Florida economy.

When Plum posed this question to both the Super Bowl Host Committee and a number of skeptical economists, we found about as much consensus as if we had asked Saints and Colts fans which team would win the game.

While some Super Bowl boosters have forecast an economic impact as high as $500 million, several professors who study the economics of sports say the impact is likely to be negligible.

Andrew Zimbalist, Professor of Economics at Smith College, argues that football fans will simply displace other visitors. According to Zimbalist, “A lot of people will say ‘Let’s not go to Miami this year because it will be crazy. Let’s find some place else to play golf this year.’”

Representatives from the hotel industry in Miami tell a different story: they are reaping the benefits of higher rates and booking requirements that mandate a minimum stay of anywhere from three to six nights. Maria Elena Rubio, General Manager of the Mondrian South Beach—which opened in 2008—is eagerly anticipating her hotel’s first Super Bowl. She told Plum, “I think what we are seeing is perhaps a higher average rate that is commanded because you call around and different hotels are sold out already.”

But the profit from the higher average hotel rates doesn’t necessarily stay in Miami, says Phil Porter, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of South Florida. According to Porter, the increased profit “flows out of your community immediately and gets deposited in Paris Hilton’s bank account in Los Angeles.”

The bottom line

The South Florida Super Bowl Host Committee is an organization that was formed to bolster local business development around the Super Bowl. According to Committee Chairman Rodney Barreto, the committee commissioned an economic impact study in 2007, when the Super Bowl was last held at Dolphin Stadium in Miami Gardens. According to Barreto, the study showed a $463 million impact on the region. Barreto predicts this year will be no different. “This is going to be a big shot in the arm,” he said.

Some economists dispute the $463 million amount. According to Professor Dario Moreno of Florida International University, the real number is “from $136 million to $156 million.”

So what accounts for the discrepancy? Professor Phil Porter says the studies commissioned by the host committee are missing key data. Porter points to a report by the State of Florida’s Department of Revenue. In February 2007, taxable sales for Miami-Dade County were actually down from the previous February, when there was no Super Bowl.